2023 Emmys Lead Actress Drama Predictions


Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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UPDATED: June 8, 2023

2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Melanie Lynskey as Shauna in YELLOWJACKETS Season 2. Photo Credit: Kimberley French/SHOWTIME.
Courtesy of Kimberley French/Showtime

Weekly Commentary: Season 2 of Showtime’s hit genre series “Yellowjackets” is ready for another dance at this year’s Emmys after premiering to critical acclaim and record-breaking numbers for the network.

Breakout star Sophie Nélisse, who plays the teenage version of Shauna, will now join her adult counterpart Melanie Lynskey in the lead actress drama category with hopes of landing a nomination. After the infamous “episode 6” — it’s more than deserving.

The pair will be joined by co-stars Tawny Cypress and Juliette Lewis, who portray the adult version of their characters, Taissa and Natalie, respectively.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.

Emmy Nominations voting runs from June 15-26. The Primetime Emmy nominations will be announced on July 12. Check back every Thursday for the latest updates. All information is preliminary and is subject to change.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:


  1. Emma D’Arcy — “House of the Dragon” (HBO)
  2. Sharon Horgan — “Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+)
  3. Elisabeth Moss — “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
  4. Keri Russell — “The Diplomat” (Netflix)

Other Top-Tier Possibilities


  1. India Amarteifio — “Queen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story” (Netflix)
  2. Tawny Cypress — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
  3. Juliette Lewis — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
  4. Christine Baranski — “The Good Fight” (Paramount+)
  5. Hilary Swank — “Alaska Daily” (ABC)
  6. Toni Collette The Power” (Prime Video)
  7. Octavia Spencer — “Truth Be Told” (Apple TV+)
  8. Ellen Pompeo — “Grey’s Anatomy” (ABC)
  9. Myha’la Herrold — “Industry” (HBO)
  10. Karen Fukuhara — “The Boys” (Prime Video)

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**


** This official list and category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.

2022 category winner: Zendaya, “Euphoria” (HBO) — Season 2


Emmy Awards Predictions Categories

DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)

Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories

GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED |

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.





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