Frontier adds dozens of new routes in possible strategy shift

Frontier Airlines announced a slew of new routes this week that will see the ultra-low-cost carrier expand its footprint at more than three dozen airports – dramatically scaling up its presence at a handful of those.

In all, the Denver-based budget airline announced 54 new routes, by TPG’s count, across 38 airports. Many of the new routes start in April, May or at the very beginning of June.

“This is a massive expansion of our operation from coast to coast and internationally,” Frontier vice president of network and operations design Josh Flyr said in a statement announcing the news Tuesday.

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But it’s where the airline is expanding that has caught the eyes of some industry observers.

Taking on competitors

Many of Frontier’s new routes put the airline head-to-head with some of its largest U.S. competitors.

For instance, the airline will expand its presence most significantly at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW), the home base of American Airlines. With 14 new routes out of DFW, Frontier will offer about 28% more seats during the second quarter of 2024 versus that same period in 2023, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium.

Frontier will offer new service (albeit just a few times weekly) on several hub-to-hub routes of the largest U.S. carriers. It will fly between Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) and both DFW and Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport (ORD) — both American hubs. United Airlines also runs a large hub out of O’Hare.

It will offer four weekly round trips between Delta Air Lines hubs in Atlanta and Minneapolis while also flying between Los Angeles and San Francisco — two United hubs.

Meanwhile, Frontier will offer fewer seats in the second quarter to Las Vegas, Orlando and Cancun — leisure destinations that are typically a hallmark of low-cost carriers’ networks.

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Frontier executives teased this strategy shift late last year amid widespread industry commentary — which came perhaps most loudly from United executives — that airlines have simply added too many flights to popular domestic leisure destinations.

Though the competition can help drive lower airfare for travelers, it can make filling seats more challenging for airlines.

Frontier CEO Barry Biffle, speaking on the carrier’s October 2023 third-quarter earnings call, cited an “uneven deployment of capacity” in the U.S. affecting Frontier’s earnings performance.

“We will be targeting growth kind of away from those places that have been saturated — in the more underserved markets — as we move into [2024],” Biffle told analysts last fall, seemingly forecasting a change in the airline’s network strategy.

To that end, data from Cirium shows Frontier also plans to wind down at least six routes in the coming months, each of which touches a warm-weather destination in the U.S., Mexico or the Caribbean.

Spirit-JetBlue aftermath a factor?

It’s also worth noting that Frontier’s network changes come just days after a federal judge sided with the U.S. Department of Justice in blocking JetBlue’s planned merger with prominent low-cost competitor Spirit Airlines.

It’s unlikely the timing is coincidental, according to Kerry Tan, an economics professor at Loyola University in Baltimore, whose research focuses on airline fares and competition. While Frontier likely didn’t rush out its route map update in the wake of the ruling, he said Frontier had almost certainly been anticipating how to better compete as the ultra-low-cost segment of the market was set for a major shake-up with the court decision looming.

“I think Frontier was always going to try and position themselves, post JetBlue-Spirit, as the new, go-to ultra-low-cost carrier,” Tan offered.

How successful might Frontier be as it adds presence on several larger airlines’ home turf?

“I think they know that trying to compete head-to-head with some of the major airlines at their hub — they’re not going to attract everyone,” Tan said. “But I think there’s a special niche market that ultra-low-cost carriers can cater to and really succeed with. And that’s the leisure traveler that’s trying to get to their destination as cheaply as possible, and don’t need some of the amenities that the major airlines provide.”

New routes announced

In all, Frontier’s network changes include expanded operations at 38 airports across the country.

On top of more than a dozen new routes at DFW, the carrier is adding eight new flights out of San Juan, Puerto Rico — where it recently established a new crew base. It’s adding seven new flights out of CLT and six out of Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU) in North Carolina.

• Boston Logan International Airport (BOS) — RDU: starts April 10, operates four times weekly
• Buffalo Niagara International Airport (BUF) — CLT: starts May 17, operates three times weekly
• Baltimore Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport (BWI) — CLT: starts April 10, operates daily
• BWI — Chicago Midway International Airport (MDW): starts April 10, operates three times weekly; then four times weekly as of May 25
• BWI — Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport (DTW): starts April 10, operates four times weekly
• Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport (CVG) — Minneapolis-Saint Paul International Airport (MSP): starts May 16, operates three times weekly
• Cleveland Hopkins International Airport (CLE) — MSP: starts May 17, operates four weekly round trips
• CLE — LaGuardia Airport (LGA): starts April 10, operates daily
• CLT — LGA: starts April 10, operates daily
• CLT — Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH): starts April 21, operates three times weekly
• CLT — DFW: starts April 11, operates three times weekly
• CLT — ORD: starts April 11, operates three times weekly
• CLT — Luis Munoz Marin International Airport (SJU): starts June 1; operates once daily, but once weekly on northbound trip
• CVG — LGA: starts April 10, operates daily
• Denver International Airport (DEN) — Los Angeles International Airport (LAX): starts April 10, operates daily
• DEN — ORD: starts April 10, operates daily
• DEN — LGA: starts May 16, operates daily
• DFW — IAH: starts April 21, operates twice daily
• DFW — Omaha’s Eppley Airfield (OMA): starts May 17, operates three times weekly
• DFW — Indianapolis International Airport (IND): starts April 22, operates four times weekly
• DFW — ORD: starts April 10, operates daily
• DFW — MSP: starts April 21, operates four times weekly
• DFW — Michigan’s Gerald R. Ford International Airport (GRR): starts May 16, operates three times weekly
• DFW — Puerto Vallarta International Airport (PVR): starts May 16, operates two times weekly (pending government approval)
• DFW — DTW, starts April 22, operates four times weekly
• DFW — Salt Lake City International Airport (SLC): starts April 11, operates three times weekly
• DFW — Southwest Florida International Airport (RSW): starts April 22, operates four times weekly
• DFW — LAX, starts April 10, operates daily
• DFW — Portland International Airport (PDX): starts April 21, operates four times weekly
• Hartsfield Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) — MSP: starts April 10, operates four times weekly
• IAH — MDW: starts April 11, operates four times weekly
• Las Vegas’ Harry Reid International Airport (LAS) — LAX: starts April 10, operates daily
• LAX — Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (PHX): starts April 10, operates daily
• LAX — San Francisco International Airport (SFO): starts April 10, operates daily
• LGA — RDU, starts April 10, operates daily
• Miami International Airport (MIA) — RDU, starts April 10, operates daily
• Milwaukee Mitchell International Airport (MKE) — RDU, starts May 16, operates three times weekly
• MSP — Philadelphia International Airport (PHL): starts May 21, operates daily
• Nashville International Airport (BNA) — DFW: starts April 21, operates four times weekly
• Ontario International Airport (ONT) — PDX: starts April 10, operates daily
• ONT — SLC: starts April 10, operates daily
• ORD — RDU: starts April 11, operates three times weekly
• PDX — SFO: starts May 21, operates daily
• PHX — St. Louis Lambert International Airport (STL): starts April 10, operates four times weekly
• RDU — Tampa International Airport (TPA): starts April 10, operates daily
• SAN — SFO: starts April 10, operates daily
• SFO — SLC: starts April 10, operates daily
• SJU — Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL): starts June 1, operates four times weekly
• SJU — BOS, starts June 2, operates three times weekly
• SJU — Norfolk International Airport (ORF): starts June 2, operates three times weekly
• SJU — Palm Beach International Airport (PBI): starts June 2, operates three times weekly
• SJU — Southwest Florida International Airport (RSW): starts June 2, operates three times weekly
• SJU — St. Croix’s Henry E. Rohlsen Airport: starts June 2, operates three times weekly (pending government approval)
• SJU — Saint Martin’s Princess Juliana International Airport (SXM): starts June 3, operates twice weekly (pending government approval)

Frontier offering flight deals

The airline is also offering some pretty compelling deals, with base fares starting as low as $19 on many of these new routes. You’ll need to book by the end of the night on Jan. 25 to tap into this “mega deal.”

Keep in mind there are quite a few restrictions that apply to the deal, from blackout dates to specified travel dates and days of the week. So, your best bet may be to search your ideal travel itinerary and see if the prices match up.

As always with low-cost carriers like Frontier, remember that the base fares are only a starting point. You’ll likely pay more than $19 for “extras” like a full-sized carry-on, checked bag or seat selection.

Route eliminations

Frontier has also filed plans to eliminate a half-dozen routes, as shown in data from Cirium.

• BNA — Orlando International Airport (MCO)
• TPA — Puerto Rico’s Rafael Hernandez International Airport (BQN)
• BWI — Cancun International Airport (CUN)
• BWI — PHX
• DEN — Jacksonville International Airport (JAX)
• MCO — Jamaica’s Sangster International Airport (MBJ)

A Frontier spokesperson did not confirm the cuts but said any route eliminations are unrelated to the new routes announced this week.

“None of the significant growth cities are associated with year-over-year cuts within that same city, but more generally are best thought of as part of our orienting the network towards underserved and overpriced markets,” the airline told TPG.

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