As we close out the year, it’s time for our annual predictions on what to expect from credit cards and rewards in 2025.
On the radar? Banks aggressively courting premium credit card holders, exciting card launches and new redemption opportunities — amid a turbulent legislative environment.
Let’s dive into 10 trends to expect from your travel rewards credit cards in 2025.
New premium cards
Avid collectors of points and miles get excited when we hear about new rewards cards — and there are some on the horizon in 2025.
Alaska Airlines has confirmed it will launch a premium card in the summer. The card will carry a $395 annual fee and include benefits such as a companion certificate, lounge passes and bonus miles on foreign purchases and dining. You can even get 500 bonus miles by joining the waitlist for the card — and then an extra 5,000 miles if you apply (and are approved) through your exclusive link at card launch.
JetBlue also announced that a premium card is in the works — one that will unlock access to the carrier’s new domestic lounges slated to open in late 2025.
Beyond these confirmed product launches, we may see others join the fray. We predicted that 2024 would be the year that Citi relaunched its top-tier Citi Prestige® Card as the Citi Strata Elite. It closed to new applicants in mid-2021 and the issuer trademarked the new name back in 2022 — but we’re still waiting for its relaunch. Perhaps 2025 will be the year it finally happens.
In addition, we’d love to see Chase launch a premium personal World of Hyatt card in 2025. Given Hyatt’s loyal customer base, we think this card would be a hit, especially if it came with a complimentary Explorist status, a level above what the $95-a-year personal card offers.
Finally, we expect to see more opportunities to earn points on home purchases and mortgages. Bilt now allows you to earn points on purchasing a home — but only when using an eligible realtor. It has also indicated that Bilt Rewards members will “soon be able to earn points on your mortgage payments.” A newcomer, Mesa, plans to do the same, with the waitlist for its credit card now open.
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The information for the Citi Prestige has been collected independently by The Points Guy. The card details on this page have not been reviewed or provided by the card issuer.
More — and more crowded — airport lounges
2024 has been a hot year for the expansion of credit card issuers’ airport lounge networks.
American Express opened two new Centurion lounges in the U.S. this year, with another one confirmed for 2025. Capital One debuted its new “Landing” dining concept, which will expand to another location, and it has plans to open two new lounges. But it was Chase who took the crown this year, opening four new lounges, with three more on the way.
Related: Airport lounge wars: How credit card companies are competing for your preflight cocktail
The question is: Are airports running out of space for all these lounges? One solution that Capital One has seemed to find is launching its Landing concept at smaller airports.
The competition may increase even further with the potential launch of Citi’s own “Strata Lounge” network, a trademark it registered in November. However, TPG Managing Editor for Credit Cards Matt Moffitt doesn’t expect this to happen before 2026, as the issuer will surely need to first relaunch its top-tier card and then build out its lounge network.
Fifteen of the top 20 busiest airports in the U.S. already have at least one credit card issuer lounge — or have confirmed the opening of one in the near future. That leaves the following primed for additional facilities:
- Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport (ORD)
- Orlando International Airport (MCO)
- Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL)
- Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (MSP)
- Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport (DTW)
This expansion in airport lounges is also accompanied by a swelling in the ranks of those holding premium travel rewards credit cards, which grant access to the lounges. We predict a continuation of lounge overcrowding and a tightening of access rules.
Issuers could introduce a cap on the number of annual visits to their lounges, as Delta Air Lines will do from February 2025. We might also see the introduction of a high spending requirement on the Capital One Venture X Rewards Credit Card or Chase Sapphire Reserve® to access guest privileges, as Amex introduced on its top-tier consumer and business cards in February 2023.
To manage capacity, Chase will hopefully join Amex and Capital One in rolling out online waitlists for their lounges.
Premium card issuers may also want to entice cardholders away from their lounges by reintroducing Priority Pass restaurant access or airport dining statement credits.
Finally, we may see issuers provide a “lounge-lite” experience by offering more grab-and-go options, as United Airlines and Delta have done.
Potential card refreshes
Many issuers are focusing on premium cards, so it’s a great opportunity for Chase to give its top card — the Sapphire Reserve — a face-lift to make it stand out more vividly against the competition. The Sapphire Reserve hasn’t been refreshed since 2021; given that the card launched in 2016, that means we’re closing in on the “due date” for another overhaul if Chase sticks to the same timeline.
The American Express® Green Card has been unchanged since 2019 and is long overdue for a refresh. Given that American Express will be sunsetting LoungeBuddy in January, stripping the Amex Green of one of its standout benefits, it’s the perfect opportunity for Amex to give the card a makeover. Given the card’s appeal to commuters and entry-level cardholders, we could see an Uber-related benefit and potentially a credit for airline incidental fees. With this refresh, we’ll likely see an annual fee hike, probably into the $200-$250 range.
Changes at Southwest Airlines, like assigned seating and an updated boarding process, may usher in an overhaul of all five of Chase’s cobranded Southwest cards.
The information for the Amex Green Card has been collected independently by The Points Guy. The card details on this page have not been reviewed or provided by the card issuer.
Some cobranded cards close to applicants
This month, we learned that American Airlines will be ending its partnership with Barclays. So, we can expect the AAdvantage® Aviator® Red World Elite Mastercard® to close to new applicants at some point in 2025, probably sooner rather than later.
Given the Alaska Airlines-Hawaiian Airlines merger, it’s anticipated that Barclays will close applications for its two Hawaiian Airlines-cobranded cards — the Hawaiian Airlines® World Elite Mastercard® and the Hawaiian Airlines® World Elite Business Mastercard® — sometime next year, too.
You can expect the ability to transfer Amex points to HawaiianMiles — and then on to Alaska’s Mileage Plan — to also end soon.
The information for the AAdvantage Aviator Red, Hawaiian Airlines World Elite Mastercard and Hawaiian Airlines World Elite Business has been collected independently by The Points Guy. The card details on this page have not been reviewed or provided by the card issuer.
Smaller issuers continue to experiment
2024 saw the release of the Wells Fargo Attune℠ Card, which offers bonus cash rewards on a variety of self-care, sports, and recreational purchases. There isn’t a card on the market that targets the same set of earning categories, making it a rather experimental offering from the issuer.
In addition, U.S. Bank launched the U.S. Bank Smartly™ Visa Signature® Card this year, targeting consumers with a significant amount of money invested with U.S. Bank. While this isn’t the first product to offer elevated rewards for those with a certain amount of savings, it is a great example of an issuer focusing on a more niche audience than just “travelers” or “foodies.”
TPG Credit Cards Writer Olivia Mittak predicts we’ll see this trend continue with smaller issuers going into 2025 as they push to carve out a space for themselves alongside the Big Four issuers (Amex, Capital One, Chase and Citi). Given that smaller issuers do not have the extensive audiences of bigger banks, they need to be more creative and experimental to draw attention.
The information for the Wells Fargo Attune and U.S. Bank Smartly Visa has been collected independently by The Points Guy. The card details on this page have not been reviewed or provided by the card issuer.
Increased use of AI to customize offers
Issuers have access to a lot of data on consumers, especially those who already have one or more of their credit cards. Although issuers are certainly already using algorithms and artificial intelligence to customize and target offers, TPG Senior Points and Miles Writer Katie Genter expects we’ll see more of this in 2025 across three specific areas: merchant offers, targeted spending offers and welcome offers.
Merchant offers — such as Amex Offers and Chase Offers — are already targeted to select cardholders. However, based on the offers we’ve received, the targeting of these offers doesn’t seem very sophisticated or customized. In many cases, they reward spending on purchases we’d already planned to make. As such, Katie expects issuers will improve their algorithms to better utilize merchant offers to attract additional purchases or those you may have paid for via a different method.
Katie frequently gets invitations via email to enroll for targeted spending offers on Citi credit cards. However, she expects more issuers to lean into these offers in 2025 to try to shift spending from other issuers’ cards. Specifically, issuers will likely use these offers — and subsequent analysis of how much these offers affect spending habits — to determine which earning rates are able to attract spending to a card for a specific consumer profile.
Finally, we expect issuers will lean more into using detailed consumer profiles — including profitability scores and information regarding which offers you’ve accepted and actively passed up previously — to promote targeted welcome offers. We already see this via the targeted offers you may get in the mail or when logging in to your online account. But we expect to see more compelling offers made to consumers that issuers expect will be profitable or otherwise help their metrics.
Related: How to use the CardMatch tool to get better credit card welcome offers
More capped bonus earnings
At the start of October, Bilt Rewards lowered the cap on the points you can earn via the double-points promotion on nonrent purchases that’s part of Rent Day each month. Now, you can only earn 1,000 bonus points per month through this promotion, regardless of how much you spend.
Bilt Rewards isn’t alone in capping bonus earnings. Starting in 2025, the American Express® Gold Card‘s 4 points per dollar spent at restaurants worldwide will be capped to the first $50,000 of eligible purchases per calendar year.
Unfortunately, we expect issuers to implement more caps on bonus earnings in 2025. Although issuers want their bonus categories to incentivize cardholders to sign up for cards and use them for purchases, they also want to maximize the value they obtain from providing these rewards. If some of your cards cap the bonus rewards you can earn in select categories, make sure you use a different card for purchases once you reach your bonus category maximum.
Related: The best rewards credit cards for each bonus category
Redeeming card rewards for experiences
Over the last few years, hotel and airline loyalty programs have started offering exclusive experiences that can only be booked with points or miles. For example, Choice Privileges offers a variety of college sports and NASCAR experiences. On the airline side, United MileagePlus Exclusives gives members the chance to redeem miles for VIP seats at sporting events and even a tour of United’s pilot training facility.
However, among the major credit card currencies, it’s less common. Bilt Rewards is the only program so far to let members redeem rewards for experiences. Specifically, Bilt Rewards started letting members redeem points for select experiences in 2023, while Capital One Entertainment offers some redemptions for sports and other live events.
As such, Katie expects to see major programs like American Express Membership Rewards and Chase Ultimate Rewards add experiences you can redeem for in 2025. Considering both programs sponsor a variety of events, it would seem like a great fit to offer members some exclusive experiences at these events. Instead of giving away these experiences, such as we’ve seen for an Amex Centurion pop-up lounge in Vail and the Amex U.S. Open lounge, the programs could let members bid points or miles for the experiences.
Related: The most exclusive travel experiences you can book with points
Lower interest rates — or maybe not?
We kicked off 2024 with high hopes of lower interest rates by the end of the year — and only part of our wish came true. We had to wait until September for our first rate cut, which was followed by two more.
So, what’s in store for the housing market and wider economy in 2025? With significant uncertainty around inflation, economic growth and tariffs, it remains to be seen. Fannie Mae and Realtor.com are both expecting mortgage rates to remain above 6% through the end of next year, and the Federal Reserve has predicted only two cuts in 2025.
Legislative uncertainty
What is clear is that the incoming administration seems focused on reducing regulation.
This could include potentially limiting the powers of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, created in 2011 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. This may lead to fewer protections and disclosures offered by banks, including higher annual percentage rates and penalty fees.
However, this also puts the Credit Card Competition Act on shakier ground. After first being introduced in 2023, the legislation has largely stalled — even after a contentious hearing in November. This somewhat populist piece of legislation may get a revival in the lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections, though.
Finally, we may see the approval of the Capital One-Discover merger, which was announced in February. A larger Discover card processing network would likely increase competition for Visa and Mastercard, potentially shifting attention away from a heavy-handed approach like the CCCA.
Bottom line
As collectors of points and miles know, the world of credit cards and rewards is ever-changing, bringing new opportunities — and challenges, too. Therefore, regardless of what 2025 has in store, our advice remains the same:
At the end of 2025, we’ll review our credit card predictions to see which ones we got wrong and right. This year, we got eight of our 10 predictions correct and the other two partially correct. Only time will tell if this track record of success will continue in the new year.