What are points and miles worth? TPG’s July 2023 monthly valuations

Editor’s note: This is a recurring post, regularly updated with new information and offers.

One of the questions people often ask me is, “How much is a point or mile worth?”

The true answer varies from point to point and person to person. It also depends on your travel goals and how well you can maximize a particular loyalty currency. Still, some rewards are clearly worth more than others, and my goal is to give you a sense of how they stack up.

Historically, TPG has valued points and miles based on a combination of the price at which we would purchase the miles, award costs in the program (factoring in availability and fees) and our own expertise in the inner workings of the programs.

However, we are in the process of evolving our valuations to become as data-driven as possible.

Looking for a convenient way to see all of your points and miles in one place? Download the free TPG app!

We are currently working with a new provider to expand the data set we use to calculate the most popular individual currencies, so we do expect these to change in the coming months. For now, the numbers below should offer a good estimate of what a savvy traveler can get by leveraging sweet spots, transfer partners and other top redemptions in the individual programs.

Note: These valuations are not provided by card issuers.

Points and miles valuations

* Calculated using TPG’s revamped data-backed valuations methodology, launched in December 2021.

Points and miles news

The last month has seen a handful of interesting (though not monumental) stories in the loyalty world. We now have a date for the integration of Choice Hotels and Radisson Rewards Americas: July 18. As of this date, you can no longer transfer points between the two Radisson programs, so be sure you’ve decided whether you’d rather have Choice Privileges points or Radisson Rewards points by then.

Meanwhile, Virgin Atlantic launched a 30% discount on all awards to (or from) the U.S. this summer — valid for all cabins. Unfortunately, this only applies to the points; you’re still on the hook for the carrier’s hefty surcharges.

On the hotel front, two major programs made moves to expand their respective portfolios, with IHG One Rewards adding the ability to earn points and enjoy elite status perks at 43 Iberostar properties, while World of Hyatt integrated Dream Hotels and launched a promotion for upcoming stays.

In addition, there are a handful of ongoing transfer bonuses to be aware of:

• American Express Membership Rewards: New 30% transfer bonus to both British Airways Executive Club and Iberia Plus until Aug. 31.
• Capital One: 25% transfer bonus to Air France-KLM Flying Blue until July 31.
• Chase Ultimate Rewards: 20% transfer bonus to Air Canada Aeroplan and a 70% bonus to IHG One Rewards through July 31.
• Citi ThankYou Rewards: 15% transfer bonus to Cathay Pacific Asia Miles until July 22.

Finally, our team has spent the last couple of months reconsidering our loyalty strategies. As major loyalty programs tinker with elite status qualifying requirements, is top-tier status still a priority in 2023 for the avid traveler? TPG’s Katie Genter has been an American Airlines Executive Platinum member for the past seven years but is no longer focused on requalifying. She cites decreased perks for top-tier members and difficulty in earning Loyalty Points as factors influencing her decision.

There are alternative Oneworld programs where you might be able to earn top-tier status if you are considering ditching your current program. Still, you would need to research to understand how each program works before making such a big decision.

If you’ve searched for flights in any program that uses dynamic pricing this summer, your jaw may have dropped at some prices. You can expect to pay 300,000-plus miles for a one-way business-class flight to Europe. Other programs that have retained award charts have priced far lower (think five figures, not six); however, many add significant fuel surcharges. While you may balk at the idea of a $1,000-plus copayment on your next redemption, this can be a better deal during peak travel periods if you save hundreds of thousands of miles.

We have crunched the numbers to help you choose between dynamic pricing and surcharges when planning where to transfer your credit card points.

Travel credit card offers

There is no shortage of incredible new welcome bonuses on many popular cards — here are a few of our favorites this month.

American Express® Green Card

Earlier this year, the American Express Green Card launched a best-ever welcome bonus, awarding 60,000 Membership Rewards points after you spend $3,000 on purchases on the card in the first six months of card membership. You’ll also earn 20% back on eligible travel and transit purchases in the first six months (up to $200 back). The 60,000 points are worth $1,200 based on TPG’s valuation, and if you max out the $200 in statement credits, that’s a total value of $1,400.

The card also features some decent benefits, including up to $100 in annual statement credits for LougeBuddy purchases and a yearly statement credit to cover the cost of a Clear Plus membership (up to $189). You’ll also earn 3 points per dollar spent on travel, transit and dining purchases, all for a relatively low $150 annual fee (see rates and fees).

For more details, check out our full review of the Amex Green Card.

Official application link: American Express Green Card

Chase Sapphire Preferred Card

Right now, the Chase Sapphire Preferred Card is offering a welcome bonus of 60,000 bonus points after you spend $4,000 in the first three months of account opening. Per TPG’s valuation, that’s worth $1,200 when you leverage transfer partners or $750 if you redeem through the Chase travel portal at 1.25 cents per point.

The card comes with a manageable $95 annual fee, along with a variety of travel protections and additional perks — like a $50 annual hotel credit for reservations made through the Chase travel portal and a 10% anniversary points bonus based on your previous year’s spending.

Of course, you may want to spring for the Chase Sapphire Reserve instead. While the card has a hefty $550 annual fee, it includes perks like Priority Pass lounge access, an annual $300 travel credit and a Global Entry or TSA PreCheck credit, among other benefits. Plus, you’ll earn 3 points per dollar on all travel and dining expenses, so you can quickly rack up rewards for your next big trip.

For more details, check out our full review of the Chase Sapphire Preferred card.

Official application: Chase Sapphire Preferred

Capital One Venture X Rewards Credit Card

On the higher end of the spectrum is the Capital One Venture X Rewards Credit Card (see rates and fees), one of the most exciting travel credit cards on the market, thanks to great earning rates and included perks.

The card is currently offering a welcome bonus of 75,000 bonus miles when you spend $4,000 on purchases in the first three months from account opening — worth $1,388 according to our valuations, thanks to Capital One’s excellent airline and hotel transfer partners.

For more details, check out our full review of the Capital One Venture X Rewards Credit Card.

Official application link: Capital One Venture X Rewards Credit Card

Capital One Venture Rewards Credit Card

The standard Capital One Venture Rewards Credit Card (see rates and fees) is currently offering the same welcome bonus as the Venture X. You can earn 75,000 bonus miles once you spend $4,000 on purchases within the first three months from account opening. Like the Venture X, the Venture card earns 2 miles per dollar on everything.

For more details, check out our full review of the Capital One Venture Rewards Credit Card.

Official application link: Capital One Venture Rewards Credit Card

The Platinum Card® from American Express

With the current welcome offer on the Amex Platinum, you’ll earn 80,000 points after you spend $6,000 on purchases in the first six months of card membership — though you may be targeted for a higher offer through the CardMatch tool (offer subject to change at any time).

Of course, the card is jam-packed with benefits like airport lounge access, hotel elite status and more. These benefits can make your travel experience smoother and more luxurious than ever before — especially with the most recent additions. The card has a $695 annual fee (see rates and fees). Enrollment is required for select benefits.

For more details, check out our full review of the Amex Platinum Card.

Official application link: The Platinum Card from American Express

American Express® Gold Card

One of the most popular cards with TPG staffers, the Amex Gold offers 60,000 Membership Rewards points after you spend $4,000 on eligible purchases on your new card within the first six months of card membership. This welcome offer is worth $1,200 based on our valuations — but be sure to check the CardMatch tool to see if you’re targeted for an even higher offer (offer subject to change at any time).

The card is great for many everyday purchases. You’ll earn 4 points per dollar at U.S. supermarkets (on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1 point per dollar) and 4 points per dollar on dining at restaurants. The card has a $250 annual fee (see rates and fees).

For more details, check out our full review of the Amex Gold Card.

Official application link: American Express Gold Card

The Business Platinum Card® from American Express

The Business Platinum Card offers 120,000 Membership Rewards points after you spend $15,000 on eligible purchases with your card in the first three months of card membership. Per our valuations, this welcome offer is worth at least $2,400, but you can get even more value when redeeming for high-end airfare.

The card also provides a slew of additional perks similar to (but slightly different from) the personal version — you can compare the two cards in this guide to see which one would be a better fit for your wallet.

For more details, check out our full review of the Amex Business Platinum Card.

Official application: The Business Platinum Card from American Express

Airline and hotel credit cards

As summer travel gets into full swing, a handful of top airline credit cards launched limited-time welcome bonuses over the last couple of months.

You’ll want to act quickly on the Southwest card offers, as they end Monday.

Meanwhile, several solid hotel credit cards have great offers right now — including those from Hilton Honors, Marriott Bonvoy and IHG One Rewards. Here are some of those options:

• Hilton Honors American Express Surpass® Card: Earn 130,000 Hilton Honors bonus points and a free night reward after you spend $2,000 on purchases in the first three months of card membership. Offer ends July 19.
• The Hilton Honors American Express Business Card: Earn 150,000 Hilton Honors bonus points and a free night award after you spend $4,000 on purchases on the card in the first three months of card membership. Offer ends July 19.
• Hilton Honors American Express Card: Earn 70,000 Hilton Honors bonus points and a free night award after you spend $1,000 on purchases in the first three months of card membership. Offer ends July 19.
• Marriott Bonvoy Brilliant® American Express® Card: Earn 150,000 Marriott Bonvoy bonus points after using your card to spend $6,000 on eligible purchases in the first six months of card membership. Plus, earn 50,000 bonus points after you stay six eligible paid nights at Marriott hotels through Jan. 31, 2024. Offer ends Aug. 9.
• Marriott Bonvoy Bevy™ American Express® Card: Earn 125,000 Marriott Bonvoy bonus points after using your card to spend $5,000 on eligible purchases in the first six months. Plus, earn 50,000 bonus points after you stay six eligible paid nights at Marriott hotels through Jan. 31, 2024. Offer ends Aug. 9.
• IHG One Rewards Premier Credit Card: Earn 140,000 bonus points after spending $3,000 on purchases within three months of account opening. Plus, earn up to $100 in statement credits on purchases at IHG properties during the first 12 months from account opening. Offer ends Sept. 27.
• IHG One Rewards Traveler Credit Card: Earn 80,000 bonus points after spending $2,000 on purchases within three months of account opening. Plus, earn up to $50 in statement credits on purchases at IHG properties during the first 12 months from account opening. Offer ends Sept. 27.

The two Marriott offers above represent best-ever welcome bonuses, though given the worldwide footprints of Marriott, Hilton and IHG, any of these offers can go a long way toward savings on your upcoming stays.

Data-backed valuations update

Finally, we wanted to share an update on our increasing use of data to drive these valuations. This process began in November 2021 with our four major transferable currencies — American Express Membership Rewards points, Chase Ultimate Rewards points, Citi ThankYou Rewards points and Capital One miles.

As a result of these efforts, the above valuations use a mathematical model that takes into account a number of factors specific to transferable points, including:

• Unique transfer partners (not shared by other card issuers).
• The most valuable individual partners in the program.
• The base redemption value when you redeem points or miles directly for travel.

Based on this rollout, the valuations for our credit card currencies are rounded to the nearest five-hundredths of a point in order to better capture the real-world value they offer cardholders.

We fully expect these numbers to fluctuate over time as we refine our equations and roll out additional data-backed hotel and airline valuations in the coming months.

Likewise, we moved three airline currencies — American AAdvantage, Delta SkyMiles and United MileagePlus miles — to a data-backed model late in 2021. However, we have put these valuations on pause while we work out an issue with our data provider, and United’s devaluation led us to update its value this month. We’re excited to have data-backed valuations updated in the coming months with even more loyalty programs included.

For rates and fees of the Amex Gold Card, click here.
For rates and fees of the Amex Platinum Card, click here.
For rates and fees of the Amex Green Card, click here.

Additional reporting by Ben Smithson, Andrew Kunesh, Benji Stawski and Nick Ewen.

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This is The Points Guy’s permanent page for the most up-to-date valuations, so you can bookmark it and check back each month for updates.